Key Publications


The following peer reviewed publications provide a web of hard evidence that we have exposed ourselves to existential threats on a number of fronts.  Successful mitigation of climate change and returning to living within planetary boundaries depends on first acknowledging and accepting that growth in population and material consumption need to be curbed and then reduced. Greta Thunberg tells us that she doesn't believe in the “win-win'" of green growth. She tells us that real change is costly, real change requires giving things up, the loss of power and privilege, new systems, new ways of life. Greta Thunberg says that with her Asperger's syndrome, she sees the issue of climate change as being black and white. We don't need to have Asperger's syndrome to realise that the issue of climate change is black and white. We simply need to curb and reduce our burning of fossil fuels. Greta says she wouldn't give a pep talk about hope. If this approach had worked in the past, then greenhouse gas emissions would have gone down by now. Greta says if we are to have hope, then we must act now! The time for mere talk is over. Once we have action, then hope is everywhere.

The following list will be added to over time.

Armstrong McKay et al. (2022) Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.  Download link

Boers & Rypdal (2021) Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point.  PNAS. Download link

Capellán-Pérez, I., Mediavilla, M., de Castro, C., Carpintero, Ó., Miguel, L.J., (2015). More growth? An unfeasible option to overcome critical energy constraints and climate change. Sustainability Science 10, 397411: Download link  

Capellán-Pérez, I.; de Castro, C.; Miguel González, L.J. (2019). Dynamic Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) and Material Requirements in Scenarios of Global Transition to Renewable EnergiesEnergy Strategy Rev. 2019, 26, 100399: Download link 

Chapman, I., (2014). The end of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials. Energy Policy 64, 93101: Download link 

Climate Action Tracker, (2021). Warming Projections Global Update, May 2021: Download link 

Ditlevsen (2023) Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Communications. Download link

Delannoy, L., Longaretti, P., Murphy, D., and Prados, E., (2021). Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective, Applied Energy, Elsevier, 2021, 304, pp.1-17: Download link 

Dryden, H. and D. Duncan, (2021). Climate regulating ocean plants and animals are being destroyed by toxic chemicals and plastics, accelerating our path towards ocean pH 7.95 in 25 years which will devastate humanity. Environmental Science eJournal, Vol1 , No. 28, June 17: Download link 

Giampietro, M, K. Mayumi, and J. Ramos-Martin, (2006) Can biofuels replace fossil energy fuels? a multi-scale integrated analysis based on the concept of societal and ecosystem metabolism: Part 1, International Journal of Transdisciplinary Research, Vol. 1, p 51-87: Download link  

Hall, C.A.S., Lambert, J.G., Balogh, S.B., (2014), EROI of different fuels and the implications for society. Energy Policy 64, 141–152: Download link 

Hansen, J.E, M.Sato, L.Simons, L.S. Nazarenko, K. von Schuckman, N.G. Loeb, M.B. Osman, P. Kharecha, Q.Jin, G. Tselioudis, A.Lacis, R. Reudy, G. Russell, J. Cao, and J. Li (2022) Global Warming in the Pipeline: Download link 

Heard, B.P., Brook, B.W., Wigley, T.M.L., Bradshaw, C.J.A., (2017). Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 76, 11221133: Download link  

Herrington, G., (2021). Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 25(3): 614-626: Download link 

Hickel, J., Kallis, G., (2020). Is Green Growth Possible? New Political Economy 25, 469–486: Download link  

Hobbs et al. (2024) Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea Ice. American Meteorological Society. Download link

IEA, (2021). The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions: Download link  

IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers: Download link 

IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers: Download link 

IPCC (2023) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Download link

Keen, S. The appallingly bad neoclassical economics of climate change. Globalization website publication, (2021): Download link  

Lambert, J.G., C.A.S. Hall, S. Balogh, A. Gupta, and M. Arnold, (2014). Energy, EROI, and Quality of Life, Energy Policy vol. 64, pp. 153-167: Download link 

Lenton, T.M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J.W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., Schellnhuber, H., (2008). Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v.105, pp. 1786–93: Download link  

Lenton et al. (2023) Global Tipping Points - Full Report. Download link

MacKay, D.J.C. (2009). Sustainable Energy — Without the Hot Air. Cambridge, UIT Cambridge Ltd, 378 pp: Download link  

McGlade, C. and P. Ekins, (2015). The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2° C, Nature 517, 187-190, 2015: Download link  

McGlade, C., Ekins, P., (2014). Un-burnable oil: An examination of oil resource utilisation in a decarbonised energy system, Energy Policy 64, 102–112: Download link 

Mertz, J.L. ets al., (2023). World scientists' warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot  2023, National Library of Medicine: Download link  

Michaux, S. (2019). ‘Oil from a Critical Raw Material Perspective’, Geological Survey of Finland Unit, 510 pp: Download link   

Michaux, S.P, (2019), The Mining of Minerals and the Limits to Growth, Geological Survey of Finland: Download link  

Michaux, S.P., (2021), Assessment of the Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels, Geological Survey of Finland: Download link  

Millward-Hopkins, J., Steinberger, J.K., Rao, N.D., and Oswald, Y., (2020). Providing decent living with minimum energy: A Global scenario. Global Environmental Change, Volume 65: Download link  

Mudd, G., (2009), Historical Trends in Base Metal Mining: Backcasting to Understand the Sustainability of Mining, Proceedings 48th Annual Conference of Metallurgists, Canadian Metallurgical Society, Sudbury, 2009 August. Update by Mudd, 2012: Download link  

Murphy, D., Hall, C.A.S, Dale, M., Cleveland, C., (2011), Order from Chaos: a preliminary protocol for determining the EROI of fuels, Sustainability3,1888–1907: Download link  

Murphy, T., (2021), Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet: Assessing and Adapting to Planetary Limits, Published by eScholarship, University of California: Download link  

NOAA (2024) 2023 was the world’s warmest year on record, by far. - View report

Myers, K. FG, Doran, P.T., Cook, J., Koycher, J.E., and Myers, T.A., (2021) Consensus revisited, quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later: Download link  

Parrique T., Barth J., Briens F„ C. Kerschner, Kraus-Polk A., Kuokkanen A., Spangenberg, J.H., (2019). Decoupling Debunked, Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability: Download link  

Pearse, R. and S. Bohm (2014).  Ten Reasons Why Carbon Markets Will Not Bring About Radical Emissions Reduction’, Carbon Management, 13 pp: Download link   

Piecuch & Beal (2023) Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits. Geophysical Research Letters. Download link

Rockström, J. et al.. (2009). A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461, 472–475: Download link   

Seibert, M., and Rees, W., (2021). Through the Eye of a Needle: An Eco-Heterodox Perspective on the Renewable Energy Transition, Energies 14, no. 15: 4508: Download link   

Sgouridis, S., Csala, D., and U. Bardi, (2016). The sowers way: quantifying the narrowing net-energy pathways to a global energy transition. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 094009: Download link   

Shindell, D., Smith, C.J., (2019). Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels. Nature 573, 408–411: Download link 

Sovacool, B.K, Ali, S.H., Bazilian, M., Radley, B., Nemery, B., Okatz, J, and Mulvaney, D., (2020). Sustainable Minerals and Metals for a Low-Carbon Future. Science 367 (6473 30-33: Download link  

Steffen, W. et al, (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet, Science 347: Download link  

Steffen, W., Rockström, J., Richardson, K., Lenton, T.M., Folke, C., Liverman, D., Summerhayes, C.P., Barnosky, A.D., Cornell, S.E., Crucifix, M., Donges, J.F., Fetzer, I., Lade, S.J., Scheffer, M., Winkelmann, R., Schellnhuber, H.J., (2018). Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 115, 8252–8259: Download link   

Taleb, N.N, Read, R., Douady, R., Norman, J., and Bar-Yam, Y., (2014). The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms). arXiv:1410.5787: Download link  

UNEP, (2011). Assessing Mineral Resources in Society: Metal Stocks & Recycling Rates: Download link  

UNEP (2021) Global Methane Assessment, Benefits and Cost of Mitigating Methane Emissions. Download link

UNEP (2023) Emissions Gap Report 2023. Download link

UNU-EHS (2023) Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023: Risk Tipping Points. Download link

Wendt et al. (2024) Southern Ocean drives multidecadal atmospheric CO2 rise during Heinrich Stadials. PNAS Download link

Winkelmann, R., A. Levermann, A. Ridgwell, and K. Caldeira, (2015). Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Science Advances, vol. 1, e1500589: Download link   

Wunderling et al. (2021) Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming. Earth System Dynamics. Download link

Wynes, S., Nicholas, K.A., (2017). The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 074024: Download link   

Xu, Y., Ramanathan, V., & Victor, D.G., (2018). Global warming will happen faster than we think, Nature, 564 30-32, 5 December 2018: Download link